Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released its updated 2026 spring flood outlook, highlighting a significantly elevated risk in the Interlake region while most other areas of the province — including Western Manitoba — remain largely unchanged from the March forecast.
The province says the Fisher River basin is now facing a high risk of flooding due to a combination of above‑normal snowpack, a delayed spring melt, and the potential for rapid runoff if temperatures rise quickly. Snow surveys show the basin’s snow‑water equivalent could reach 110 millimetres, nearly double the long‑term average and comparable to major flood years such as 2014 and 2022. With temperatures expected to hover near freezing through mid‑April, officials warn that a sudden warm‑up or spring rain could trigger a fast, concentrated melt.
The Icelandic River also remains at moderate risk, with ice‑jam flooding still a concern.
Outside the Interlake, the province says conditions are steady. Moderate flood risk continues along the Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers, while eastern Manitoba and many tributaries remain at low risk. For Westman, that means the Assiniboine and Souris systems are still being monitored, but no major changes are expected unless weather shifts abruptly.
The Portage Diversion is expected to begin operating this week to manage ice‑related flow on the Lower Assiniboine. The Red River Floodway is not expected to be activated under normal conditions.
Officials caution that overland flooding can still occur if rapid melt combines with rainfall while drainage systems remain frozen. Manitobans living near rivers or low‑lying areas are encouraged to stay alert as spring runoff approaches.
