Trade winds are blowing, and they blew a gale through Brandon yesterday.
Wheat Kings fans have been hungry for a big, aggressive move from the club to bolster their chances in a crowded Eastern Conference, and they got a blockbuster when the team moved defenseman Charlie Elick to the Tri-City Americans for forward Jordan Gavin and defenseman Merrek Arpin.
It’s a rare trade that seems to be all things to all people, helping both teams in the present and possibly the future as well, and giving two of the players involved the kind of fresh start they might benefit from (more on that in a moment) and it comes at a time where the Wheat Kings have earned the chance to do more than just keep their heads above water.
Leading up to that trade, there were some disappointing outings for the Black and Gold, but sweeping a pair of Saskatchewan road trips, in both cases taking points away from teams with whom they’re jockeying for position, has put the Wheat Kings in sight of something that I think ought to drive their philosophy going into the final 40 or so hours before the trade deadline.
Silly season has already gotten plenty silly and it’s nowhere near finished. It’s 9:38 AM Central Time as I write this blog. By the time I’ve finished, someone else might be on the move.
- So first, the trade. The saying is you’ve got to give a lot to get a lot. Charlie Elick, the former third overall pick, the second-round NHL pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets, the two-time Canadian gold medalist at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and World Under-18s, the 6-foot-3 right shot defenseman who skates well and hits hard, is a lot. This is the tough part of an otherwise exciting deal: you lose, as Marty Murray succinctly put it, a good player and a good person. On a personal note, when I came to the Wheat Kings last season Charlie was the first top prospect I’d ever worked with and the first player I’d ever navigated the media demands of a draft season with. As such, I probably talked more with him than just about any other player on the roster, and in that regard, it’s tough to see him go. The personal side of these deals is never easy, and all the harder for coaches and staff, who’ve worked with Charlie through his 163 games as a Wheat King.
- From the hockey side, however, this is a trade that may do Elick some good. It’s hard to say whether he’ll get power play opportunities in Tri-City (Jackson Smith is the pretty clear leading scorer among defensemen there with Austin Zemlak also producing at a strong clip) but Tri-City prizes a heavy, physical game that should be exactly the sort of hockey Elick is looking to play. Frankly, it’s the sort he needs to play to be at his best, and the sort that got him drafted in the first place. For whatever reason, Elick’s development in Brandon had begun to slow. After an excellent 17-year-old season in which he had 25 points at even strength alone, Elick had just seven assists with the Wheat Kings this season. Some fans have expressed concern about the lack of goals, but to me Elick has never been a guy who needs to score to be effective. Actually, the lack of assists was the more concerning trend. All season long, the Wheat Kings have said all they really need their defensemen to do is get the puck into the hands of their forwards. Simply moving the puck up ice and occasionally holding the line will lead to secondary assists even without power play time (case in point, Dylan Ronald, and we’ll have more on him later). Those sorts of points weren’t coming for Elick. For so many reasons he’s the ideal prototype of a big-game defenseman with his enviable size and even more impressive skating. He’s got all the potential in the world, and I hope Tri-City is the environment he needs to realize that potential. But it had become increasingly clear it was going to take some kind of shakeup for him to continue developing, and this might be exactly the shake-up he needs. This is the kind of trade where neither the players nor the teams involved have to lose.
- As for what the Wheat Kings got, like I said, neither team has to lose this one but at first glance I think the Wheat Kings have gotten two big wins in the players they’ve added. Merrek Arpin is a solid addition, having the size at 6-foot-4 to ensure the Wheat Kings aren’t giving anything up in that department. He also, helpfully, is right handed, so he can slot into Elick’s old place on the depth chart. While he won’t have the same hype around him that an NHL second-round pick would, he will have more or less the same objectives: be hard to play against, provide stability, and get the puck into the hands of his team’s forwards. On those counts, Marty Murray is satisfied Arpin can succeed.
- The headline piece of this deal for the Wheat Kings, however, is Jordan Gavin. The second overall pick in 2021 has a ton of skill, and has been a point producer ever since coming into the league, going all the way back to his debut at 15 years old. Watching a long series of highlight packages of Gavin’s, he displays every tool in the offensive toolbox. His skating, shot, hands, and vision are all elite and he instantly adds an offensive dimension to the Wheat Kings’ forward group that’s going to make them a lot deadlier every time he’s on the ice. If he carries on at his current pace he’d end up with roughly a 60-point season and finish somewhere in the 25-30 goal range, but something tells me he’s going to get an opportunity to bust out in a big way in the Wheat City. Another encouraging statistical note for Gavin: he has two shorthanded goals this year and had two last year as well, meaning the Wheat Kings’ penalty kill will get a boost from him on top of everything else. Gavin is the sort piece that instantly upgrades the offense of any team he joins, and because he’s a 2006-born player he’ll upgrade the Wheat Kings’ offense next season too. The cherry on top? Gavin is up for the NHL entry draft for the first time this summer (projected as a second-round pick on most lists) so he’ll get drafted as a Wheat King.
- Gavin and Elick being swapped for each other is just the latest chapter in the bizarrely unfolding story of the 2021 WHL prospects draft. With this swap, 11 of the 22 first round picks in that draft have now been traded away from the teams that drafted them. Four of them have been swapped for each other (Gavin for Elick and Ryder Ritchie for Tomas Mrsic) and while I won’t speculate on any individual remaining on the list it’s very possible the trades involving these players haven’t stopped yet. This was the strangest draft in recent memory thanks to the pandemic, and the only draft in which players were selected while playing their first year of U18 or U17 hockey. It wasn’t a bad draft by any means (just look at some of the names on there, including the ones Brandon still has with Roger McQueen and Caleb Hadland) but it’s proven to be a tumultuous one.
- Not to be lost in the blockbuster swap of Elick for Gavin was another move the Wheat Kings made yesterday, trading Rhett Ravndahl to the Kamloops Blazers for a fifth-round pick. The Nate Danielson Trade Tree (which was itself part of another massive trade tree) sprouts another branch. This was another tough trade on a personal level, as ever since coming here “Rav” has been one of my favorite guys to deal with. He always did his interviews with a smile on his face and I’ll never forget the look on his face after he scored the Teddy Bear Toss goal for the Wheat Kings earlier this season. The emergence of young blueliners meant Ravndahl was the odd man out, and I hope he gets nothing but the best of opportunities with the Blazers.
- Part of the reason the Wheat Kings felt so comfortable moving on from Elick and Ravndahl on the back end, in addition to the sizeable, steady blueliner they brought in, was the emergence of their less experienced blueliners. The recent Saskatchewan road swing was a coming out party for Dylan Ronald, who scored two beauties against the Blades, but the truth is he’s been coming along nicely since well before that game. Now up to 14 points on the season (about a 28-point pace) Ronald has epitomized the calm, simple but effective puck moving style the Wheat Kings want from their blueliners. That’s not to say every defenseman’s assist has been pedestrian this season (Luke Shipley, take a bow; you’ve pulled off some incredible passes of late) but the coaches have stressed they don’t need highlight reel plays from their defense corps. Beyond Ronald, Gio Pantelas and Nigel Boehm continue to impress, and to play well beyond their years. In Boehm’s case in particular, watch him play and tell me doesn’t remind you of Quinn Mantei.
- Yeesh, I was partly joking when I said I expected another trade before I was done writing this blog, but sure enough, another one came down. Ben Riche, the leading scorer for the Saskatoon Blades, was shipped to Prince George for a hefty price, including drafted forward Hunter Laing (selected by Calgary) and a first-round pick. If you want an example of truly impressive asset management, this is it. The Blades picked up Riche in exchange for Vaughn Watterodt in the offseason (and that was impressive enough, given Riche was leading their team in scoring most of the season) and have turned that win into another. Effectively, the team took a 2004-born player they weren’t going to be able to keep and parlayed him into 54 points worth of Ben Riche, an NHL drafted prospect in Laing, an unsigned 2009-born player in Luke Dumas, a first-round pick in 2026, and a fifth-round pick in 2028. And this comes after they got Watterodt himself for the cost of a fifth-round 2024 pick back in 2021 (and got an eighth-round pick thrown in to boot). Masterful stuff.
So the question Wheat Kings fans will be asking now: where does all of this leave them? Are they buying, selling, or standing pat over the next 48 hours? It’s an interesting question, especially with the Wheat Kings still armed with an extra first and second-round pick in the coming draft.
Personally, I can see why the Wheat Kings would want to buy. For me, it has less to do with the insane arms race in the Central Division (I could devote an entirely separate blog to that) and more to do with what’s happening closer to home. The Blades, as evidenced by the offloading of Riche, Tanner Molendyk, and Brandon Lisowsky, are looking to the future. The Prince Albert Raiders, meanwhile, are getting more experienced and significantly meaner with the additions of Matteo Fabrizi and Rilen Kovacevic. The true race for the top of the East Division has begun.
The Blades occupy top spot in the division at present, but the Wheat Kings have four games remaining against the Blades (three of them on home ice) and three games in hand on them overall. They have it within their own power to overtake the Blades, needing no help on the out of town scoreboard. They’ve only got one game left against the Raiders, and currently hold no games in hand on them, however. And that division title is sitting there for the taking.
Why should that title matter so much, besides the banner? Well, it guarantees the Wheat Kings no worse than second place in the first round of the playoffs. As much as they’ve loaded up, no amount of trades will allow the Central Division powers to escape basic mathematics. Only one of them can win their division, meaning two of the Calgary Hitmen, Medicine Hat Tigers, and Lethbridge Hurricanes will fall into that 3-6 range. That’s not a first round opponent the Wheat Kings (or anyone else really) would want. A division title makes it far more likely for them to avoid that particular gauntlet.
With that in mind, I could see the Wheat Kings adding a piece or two. They’ve made it clear they’re not taking any backwards steps with their roster, so don’t expect them to sell. The window to win is still open beyond this season, as was always the plan, but the team has some new incentive to pry that window open a little wider and a little sooner.
Of course, as always, the other half of the equation is: will other teams play ball?
